Molecular epidemiology of acute respiratory virus infections

Acute respiratory virus infections are very common but can also cause severe disease. In my thesis, I have analysed the molecular epidemiology of acute respiratory virus infections caused by enterovirus D68 and coronaviruses. In Paper I, we used real-time PCR and Sanger sequencing to analyse the outbreak of enterovirus D68 in Stockholm in 2016. We found that the outbreak was caused by the subclade B3, and we also described three patients with neurological manifestations. The virus sequences were closely related to concurrent sequences from North America. In Paper II, we developed an assay for whole-genome sequencing of enterovirus D68 a next-generation platform. By using the assay on the samples from the 2016 outbreak, we found that the outbreak was caused by multiple independent introductions of the virus. We also estimated the time to the most common recent ancestor for the subclades B1 and B3 to 2009. In Paper III, we used the whole-genome sequencing assay in a European multicentre study of enterovirus D68 circulation in the 2018 season. We also included sequences in public repositories. We found that the viruses in 2018 belonged to subclades A2 and B3 and that sequences in subclade B3 originated from the circulation in 2016. We also found that enterovirus D68 had a rapid geographic mixing and that residues on the surface of the virus particle had an elevated substitution rate of amino acids. Hence, we proposed asymptomatic reinfections of adults to explain both rapid geographical dispersal and selective pressure on the surface residues. In Paper IV, we analysed stored results from routine clinical diagnostics for the four common cold coronaviruses. The data contained the results from September 2009 to April 2020. At the species level, we found a pattern of alternating biennial circulation, and we also found the circulation of Betacoronaviruses to peak earlier than that of Alphacoronaviruses. In Paper V, we investigated Sweden’s first SARS-CoV-2 pandemic wave in 2020. We analysed stored respiratory samples with real-time PCR for SARS-CoV-2 and found that community transmissions started earlier than previously appreciated. We also se-quenced stored SARS-CoV-2-positive samples. To these sequences, we added infor-mation from contact tracing records and combined them with data from public reposi-tories. Among cases exposed abroad, we mainly found clades 20B and 20A, whereas clade 20C dominated domestic infections. Furthermore, we found the proportion of clade 20C to be correlated with the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19. We interpreted this as early undetected introductions of clade 20C having had a significant impact on the further course of the pandemic in Sweden

Potential impact of seasonal forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) first detected in Wuhan, China, has spread rapidly since December 2019, causing more than 100,000 confirmed infections and 4000 fatalities (as of 10 March 2020). The outbreak has been declared a pandemic by the WHO on Mar 11, 2020. Here, we explore how seasonal variation in transmissibility could modulate a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Data from routine diagnostics show a strong and consistent seasonal variation of the four endemic coronaviruses (229E, HKU1, NL63, OC43) and we parameterise our model for SARS-CoV-2 using these data. The model allows for many subpopulations of different size with variable parameters. Simulations of different scenarios show that plausible parameters result in a small peak in early 2020 in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere and a larger peak in winter 2020/2021. Variation in transmission and migration rates can result in substantial variation in prevalence between regions. While the uncertainty in parameters is large, the scenarios we explore show that transient reductions in the incidence rate might be due to a combination of seasonal variation and infection control efforts but do not necessarily mean the epidemic is contained. Seasonal forcing on SARS-CoV-2 should thus be taken into account in the further monitoring of the global transmission. The likely aggregated effect of seasonal variation, infection control measures, and transmission rate variation is a prolonged pandemic wave with lower prevalence at any given time, thereby providing a window of opportunity for better preparation of health care systems

Interactions between seasonal human coronaviruses and implications for the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: A retrospective study in Stockholm, Sweden, 2009-2020

The four seasonal coronaviruses 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1 are frequent causes of respiratory infections and show annual and seasonal variation. Increased understanding about these patterns could be informative about the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2.; Results from PCR diagnostics for the seasonal coronaviruses, and other respiratory viruses, were obtained for 55,190 clinical samples analyzed at the Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden, between 14 September 2009 and 2 April 2020.; Seasonal coronaviruses were detected in 2130 samples (3.9 %) and constituted 8.1 % of all virus detections. OC43 was most commonly detected (28.4 % of detections), followed by NL63 (24.0 %), HKU1 (17.6 %), and 229E (15.3 %). The overall fraction of positive samples was similar between seasons, but at species level there were distinct biennial alternating peak seasons for the Alphacoronaviruses, 229E and NL63, and the Betacoronaviruses, OC43 and HKU1, respectively. The Betacoronaviruses peaked earlier in the winter season (Dec-Jan) than the Alphacoronaviruses (Feb-Mar). Coronaviruses were detected across all ages, but diagnostics were more frequently requested for paediatric patients than adults and the elderly. OC43 and 229E incidence was relatively constant across age strata, while that of NL63 and HKU1 decreased with age.; Both the Alphacoronaviruses and Betacoronaviruses showed alternating biennial winter incidence peaks, which suggests some type of immune mediated interaction. Symptomatic reinfections in adults and the elderly appear relatively common. Both findings may be of relevance for the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2

Evolution, geographic spreading, and demographic distribution of Enterovirus D68

Viral evolution; Age distribution; Molecular evolutionEvolución viral; Distribución de edad; Evolución molecularEvolució viral; Distribució per edats; Evolució molecularWorldwide outbreaks of enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in 2014 and 2016 have caused serious respiratory and neurological disease. We collected samples from several European countries during the 2018 outbreak and determined 53 near full-length genome (‘whole genome’) sequences. These sequences were combined with 718 whole genome and 1,987 VP1-gene publicly available sequences. In 2018, circulating strains clustered into multiple subgroups in the B3 and A2 subclades, with different phylogenetic origins. Clusters in subclade B3 emerged from strains circulating primarily in the US and Europe in 2016, though some had deeper roots linking to Asian strains, while clusters in A2 traced back to strains detected in East Asia in 2015-2016. In 2018, all sequences from the USA formed a distinct subgroup, containing only three non-US samples. Alongside the varied origins of seasonal strains, we found that diversification of these variants begins up to 18 months prior to the first diagnostic detection during a EV-D68 season. EV-D68 displays strong signs of continuous antigenic evolution and all 2018 A2 strains had novel patterns in the putative neutralizing epitopes in the BC- and DE-loops. The pattern in the BC-loop of the USA B3 subgroup had not been detected on that continent before. Patients with EV-D68 in subclade A2 were significantly older than patients with a B3 subclade virus. In contrast to other subclades, the age distribution of A2 is distinctly bimodal and was found primarily among children and in the elderly. We hypothesize that EV-D68’s rapid evolution of surface proteins, extensive diversity, and high rate of geographic mixing could be explained by substantial reinfection of adults. Better understanding of evolution and immunity across diverse viral pathogens, including EV-D68 and SARS-CoV-2, is critical to pandemic preparedness in the future

Intra- and interpatient evolution of enterovirus D68 analyzed by whole-genome deep sequencing

Worldwide outbreaks of enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in 2014 and 2016 have caused serious respiratory and neurological disease. To investigate diversity, spread, and evolution of EV-D68 we performed near full-length deep sequencing in fifty-four samples obtained in Sweden during the 2014 and 2016 outbreaks. In most samples, intrapatient variability was low and dominated by rare synonymous variants, but three patients showed evidence of dual infections with distinct EV-D68 variants from the same subclade. Interpatient evolution showed a very strong temporal signal, with an evolutionary rate of 0.0039 ± 0.0001 substitutions per site and year. Phylogenetic trees reconstructed from the sequences suggest that EV-D68 was introduced into Stockholm several times during the 2016 outbreak. Putative neutralization targets in the BC and DE loops of the VP1 protein were slightly more diverse within-host and tended to undergo more frequent substitution than other genomic regions. However, evolution in these loops did not appear to have been driven the emergence of the 2016 B3-subclade directly from the 2014 B1-subclade. Instead, the most recent ancestor of both clades was dated to 2009. The study provides a comprehensive description of the intra- and interpatient evolution of EV-D68, including the first report of intrapatient diversity and dual infections. The new data along with publicly available EV-D68 sequences are included in an interactive phylodynamic analysis on nextstrain.org/enterovirus/d68 to facilitate timely EV-D68 tracking in the future

Evolution, geographic spreading, and demographic distribution of Enterovirus D68.

Worldwide outbreaks of enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in 2014 and 2016 have caused serious respiratory and neurological disease. We collected samples from several European countries during the 2018 outbreak and determined 53 near full-length genome ('whole genome') sequences. These sequences were combined with 718 whole genome and 1,987 VP1-gene publicly available sequences. In 2018, circulating strains clustered into multiple subgroups in the B3 and A2 subclades, with different phylogenetic origins. Clusters in subclade B3 emerged from strains circulating primarily in the US and Europe in 2016, though some had deeper roots linking to Asian strains, while clusters in A2 traced back to strains detected in East Asia in 2015-2016. In 2018, all sequences from the USA formed a distinct subgroup, containing only three non-US samples. Alongside the varied origins of seasonal strains, we found that diversification of these variants begins up to 18 months prior to the first diagnostic detection during a EV-D68 season. EV-D68 displays strong signs of continuous antigenic evolution and all 2018 A2 strains had novel patterns in the putative neutralizing epitopes in the BC- and DE-loops. The pattern in the BC-loop of the USA B3 subgroup had not been detected on that continent before. Patients with EV-D68 in subclade A2 were significantly older than patients with a B3 subclade virus. In contrast to other subclades, the age distribution of A2 is distinctly bimodal and was found primarily among children and in the elderly. We hypothesize that EV-D68's rapid evolution of surface proteins, extensive diversity, and high rate of geographic mixing could be explained by substantial reinfection of adults. Better understanding of evolution and immunity across diverse viral pathogens, including EV-D68 and SARS-CoV-2, is critical to pandemic preparedness in the future

Functional SARS-CoV-2 cross-reactive CD4+ T cells established in early childhood decline with age.

Pre-existing SARS-CoV-2-reactive T cells have been identified in SARS-CoV-2-unexposed individuals, potentially modulating COVID-19 and vaccination outcomes. Here, we provide evidence that functional cross-reactive memory CD4+ T cell immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is established in early childhood, mirroring early seroconversion with seasonal human coronavirus OC43. Humoral and cellular immune responses against OC43 and SARS-CoV-2 were assessed in SARS-CoV-2-unexposed children (paired samples at age two and six) and adults (age 26 to 83). Pre-existing SARS-CoV-2-reactive CD4+ T cell responses targeting spike, nucleocapsid, and membrane were closely linked to the frequency of OC43-specific memory CD4+ T cells in childhood. The functional quality of the cross-reactive memory CD4+ T cell responses targeting SARS-CoV-2 spike, but not nucleocapsid, paralleled OC43-specific T cell responses. OC43-specific antibodies were prevalent already at age two. However, they did not increase further with age, contrasting with the antibody magnitudes against HKU1 (β-coronavirus), 229E and NL63 (α-coronaviruses), rhinovirus, Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), and influenza virus, which increased after age two. The quality of the memory CD4+ T cell responses peaked at age six and subsequently declined with age, with diminished expression of interferon (IFN)-γ, interleukin (IL)-2, tumor necrosis factor (TNF), and CD38 in late adulthood. Age-dependent qualitative differences in the pre-existing SARS-CoV-2-reactive T cell responses may reflect the ability of the host to control coronavirus infections and respond to vaccination

Vitamin D Induction of the Human Antimicrobial Peptide Cathelicidin in the Urinary Bladder

The urinary tract is frequently being exposed to potential pathogens and rapid defence mechanisms are therefore needed. Cathelicidin, a human antimicrobial peptide is expressed and secreted by bladder epithelial cells and protects the urinary tract from infection. Here we show that vitamin D can induce cathelicidin in the urinary bladder. We analyzed bladder tissue from postmenopausal women for expression of cathelicidin, before and after a three-month period of supplementation with 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (25D3). Cell culture experiments were performed to elucidate the mechanisms for cathelicidin induction. We observed that, vitamin D per se did not up-regulate cathelicidin in serum or in bladder tissue of the women in this study. However, when the bladder biopsies were infected with uropathogenic E. coli (UPEC), a significant increase in cathelicidin expression was observed after 25D3 supplementation. This observation was confirmed in human bladder cell lines, even though here, cathelicidin induction occurred irrespectively of infection. Vitamin D treated bladder cells exerted an increased antibacterial effect against UPEC and colocalization to cathelicidin indicated the relevance of this peptide. In the light of the rapidly growing problem of resistance to common urinary tract antibiotics, we suggest that vitamin D may be a potential complement in the prevention of UTI

Recommendations for enterovirus diagnostics and characterisation within and beyond Europe.

Enteroviruses (EV) can cause severe neurological and respiratory infections, and occasionally lead to devastating outbreaks as previously demonstrated with EV-A71 and EV-D68 in Europe. However, these infections are still often underdiagnosed and EV typing data is not currently collected at European level. In order to improve EV diagnostics, collate data on severe EV infections and monitor the circulation of EV types, we have established European non-polio enterovirus network (ENPEN). First task of this cross-border network has been to ensure prompt and adequate diagnosis of these infections in Europe, and hence we present recommendations for non-polio EV detection and typing based on the consensus view of this multidisciplinary team including experts from over 20 European countries. We recommend that respiratory and stool samples in addition to cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and blood samples are submitted for EV testing from patients with suspected neurological infections. This is vital since viruses like EV-D68 are rarely detectable in CSF or stool samples. Furthermore, reverse transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR) targeting the 5'noncoding regions (5'NCR) should be used for diagnosis of EVs due to their sensitivity, specificity and short turnaround time. Sequencing of the VP1 capsid protein gene is recommended for EV typing; EV typing cannot be based on the 5'NCR sequences due to frequent recombination events and should not rely on virus isolation. Effective and standardized laboratory diagnostics and characterisation of circulating virus strains are the first step towards effective and continuous surveillance activities, which in turn will be used to provide better estimation on EV disease burden

Molecular Epidemiology and Evolutionary Trajectory of Emerging Echovirus 30, Europe

In 2018, an upsurge in echovirus 30 (E30) infections was reported in Europe. We conducted a large-scale epidemiologic and evolutionary study of 1,329 E30 strains collected in 22 countries in Europe during 2016-2018. Most E30 cases affected persons 0-4 years of age (29%) and 25-34 years of age (27%). Sequences were divided into 6 genetic clades (G1-G6). Most (53%) sequences belonged to G1, followed by G6 (23%), G2 (17%), G4 (4%), G3 (0.3%), and G5 (0.2%). Each clade encompassed unique individual recombinant forms; G1 and G4 displayed >= 2 unique recombinant forms. Rapid turnover of new clades and recombinant forms occurred over time. Clades G1 and G6 dominated in 2018, suggesting the E30 upsurge was caused by emergence of 2 distinct clades circulating in Europe. Investigation into the mechanisms behind the rapid turnover of E30 is crucial for clarifying the epidemiology and evolution of these enterovirus infections.Peer reviewe